Payback is a b*tch

12 Jun 2013

As regular MichiganGreenLaw readers know, about 18 months ago, we added insulation to our home.  While three years of data (one before, one of and one after) is not a big enough database, I spent time evaluating at the last three years of our DTE and Consumers Power invoices.  What I learned is that our sense that our house was warmer in the winter and stayed cooler in the summer appears to be accurate.  We saw a reduction in our usage and, while rates vary over time, it does appear that we are saving money.  Now we find ourselves asking how long before this improvement pays for itself in savings?

This is the question that many businesses ask before making alternative energy investments – “How long before I recoup my investment?”  Often, in the post-2007 era, businesses will insist on less  than three years.  Savvy investors know that there are many different methods used to analyze capital projects including net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), cash flow, profitability index (PI), and payback period.

The payback period method does not take into account the time value of money, the likely increase in costs of energy ($4.30 a gallon of gas, anyone?) and this method doesn’t consider cash inflows after the initial investment is recovered (except the recognition that it’s “all gravy” conclusion).  The payback method’s biggest advantage is it is easy to apply and understand.  However, as more and more authors are writing, this method is misleading and often unfair – as this author notes, no one asks for the payback on home amenities. In short, when making these investments, one must treat them as investments and, taking into account incentives, cash flow, cost of money, projected increases in the cost of energy, (not to mention the ability to market the greener approach or the societal value of a smaller carbon footprint)  consider whether investing in greener equipment or processes is the best use for the company’s funds when compared to other investment opportunities. In many cases it may be the best investment, despite a longer than desired payback period.

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